High-Priced Gas Is GOOD For America!
How could this possibly be? We rely on gas for just about everything in this country - how could high priced gas actually be GOOD for us?
Because without high-priced gas, we’d have no incentive to innovate.
In my article on ‘Who Killed The Electric Car?’ last year, I emphasized the fact that no one wanted an expensive, inconvenient-to-operate electric car while gas was cheap. The economics would never work out, even if electricity was marginally cheaper than gas, because batteries were way too expensive. But it’s safe to say that many foretold the coming of high-priced gas back then. Peak Oil is a concept dating back to the 50s, and those who adhere to its principles saw a drop in petroleum production on the horizon.
So why didn’t we do anything about it? Same reason we don’t do anything about Social Security, widely predicted to collapse in a couple of decades - it’s not a current crisis. We respond to current crises pretty well in this country - we plan for future crises poorly (just ask those living in New Orleans).
Sphere: Related ContentA Car That Gets 300 Miles Per Gallon
While A123Systems, Altairnano, and EESTOR are developing next generation high-performance batteries, car manufacturers are working hard to develop the perfect electric cars to exploit them. A company called Aptera now claims their latest prototype gets a whopping 300 miles per gallon fuel efficiency. But at what cost?
Sphere: Related Content7 Levels Of Change (Part 7 of 9) - Level 6: Doing Things No One Else Is Doing
Table of contents for 7 Levels Of Change
- The 7 Levels Of Change - Introduction (Part 1 of 9)
- 7 Levels Of Change (Part 2 of 9) - Level 1: Effectiveness
- 7 Levels Of Change (Part 3 of 9) - Level 2: Efficiency
- 7 Levels Of Change (Part 4 of 9) - Level 3: Improving
- 7 Levels Of Change (Part 5 of 9) - Level 4: Cutting
- 7 Levels Of Change (Part 6 of 9) - Level 5: Copying
- 7 Levels Of Change (Part 7 of 9) - Level 6: Doing Things No One Else Is Doing
- 7 Levels Of Change (Part 8 of 9) - Level 7: Doing Things That Can’t Be Done
- 7 Levels Of Change (Part 9 of 9) - Bringing It All Together
The seventh in a nine-part series on Rolf Smith’s 7 Levels of Change, I introduce the sixth level of change - Different (Doing Things No One Else Is Doing).
Sphere: Related ContentGet Your First Electric Car From…Sam’s Club???
Who is the first to the American mass market with an electric car? Would you believe…Sam’s Club?
Sphere: Related Content7 Levels Of Change (Part 4 of 9) - Level 3: Improving
Table of contents for 7 Levels Of Change
- The 7 Levels Of Change - Introduction (Part 1 of 9)
- 7 Levels Of Change (Part 2 of 9) - Level 1: Effectiveness
- 7 Levels Of Change (Part 3 of 9) - Level 2: Efficiency
- 7 Levels Of Change (Part 4 of 9) - Level 3: Improving
- 7 Levels Of Change (Part 5 of 9) - Level 4: Cutting
- 7 Levels Of Change (Part 6 of 9) - Level 5: Copying
- 7 Levels Of Change (Part 7 of 9) - Level 6: Doing Things No One Else Is Doing
- 7 Levels Of Change (Part 8 of 9) - Level 7: Doing Things That Can’t Be Done
- 7 Levels Of Change (Part 9 of 9) - Bringing It All Together
The fourth in a nine-part series on Rolf Smith’s 7 Levels of Change, I introduce the third level of change - Improving (Doing Things Better).
Sphere: Related ContentEEStor, A123, Altairnano…AND THE WINNER IS…
An Electric Car Breakthrough? Building On A Good Idea
I just stumbled across a brilliant idea that, if implemented properly, could provide the revolutionary spark that electric cars need. Using it as a baseline, we can flesh out a broader solution that makes the confusion surrounding the practicality of owning an electric car a lot more clear.
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My innocuous little post on EESTOR has become the most popular/infamous article I’ve written yet. So I thought I would follow it up with a more positive outlook on how I think EESTOR could be more disruptive.
Sphere: Related ContentDoes EESTOR Have What It Takes To Be Disruptive?
One of the great myths of innovation is that the best products win out. Nothing could be further from the truth - tons of great products fail. Let’s take a look at an potentially great new product and see what might be in store for it.
Sphere: Related ContentWhy We Need Electric Cars, Part II
In the first installment I discussed the three main paths we are taking to rid ourselves of the need for oil, concluding that the electron economy holds more promise than either the biofuel or hydrogen economy. I also talked about some innovations on the supply side that will make electricity more renewable. This installment discusses advances in battery tech that make various forms of electric cars more practical.
The past two years have brought a quiet revolution in high performance battery technology. The basic problem is: how do we make 1) high energy-density batteries that 2) recharge quick enough to make you want to give up your gasoline powered car? And the solutions have been developed largely due to nanotechnology, and rethinking the fundamental assumptions of how batteries are built and recharged.
Two approaches are gaining steam. The first the development of high performance, safe lithium batteries. Two companies are targeting their new battery technologies for the hybrid/full electric car markets - A123 and Altairnano. A123 got off the starting blocks faster with their nanophosphate lithium ion cells, because they are better geared for mass production. The new cells set new performance standards in nearly every important category. They’ve nearly eliminated cycle degradation - new cells are testing out at 300,000 cycles successfully. This means you don’t have to replace the battery pack during the life cycle of the car, avoiding a major maintenance expense. They are also targeting the widest possible market, offering separate products for full electric cars, plug-in hybrid electric cars, and plug-in hybrid CONVERSION KITS. You’ll be able to take a three year old Prius and upgrade it to 150+ MPG.
Altairnano, as I discussed earlier, is partnering with others to market a full electric vehicle, but they are mainly involved in the development of the lithium battery it uses. Their innovation is to apply nanotech-engineered materials to the battery terminals, eliminating impedements to fast recharge cycles. You can recharge a 50 kWh Nanosafe battery pack in as little as 10 minutes, given adequate charging capacity. This potentially eliminates another barrier to electric car development - inconvenience. If you can eventually recharge your battery in the same, or a bit more, time as it takes to refuel your gas tank, you’re more likely to consider buying an all-electric car - which one of the things I believe that ‘Who Killed The Electric Car’ got totally wrong.
In both cases, nanotech has been used to make lithium batteries more powerful, cheaper to manufacture, and charge faster. But what about the venerable old lead acid battery? Is it becoming the Edsel of the battery world? Not according to Firefly, who has developed a way to make lead-acid batteries that compete with lithium, performance wise, at a fifth of the cost. They did so by replacing the lead with a carbon-graphite foam. This dropped the weight substantially and increased the surface area to enhance material utilization. The result is a battery that is superior to its lead based counterpart in every way - and can slip directly into the existing automotive and high performance battery distribution network.
And then there’s EESTOR, the darkhorse that promises a totally new technology that makes batteries obsolete. They claim proprietary improvements in materials have made possible a super-powerful, super-cheap ultracapacitor. They are being extremely secretive, evoking shouts of ‘VAPOR!’ from the masses, but if they are for real they’ve got a disruptive innovation that will change the way we think about electric vehicles.
Assuming EESTOR doesn’t swoop in to save the day, there are two main challenges with all-electric cars. The first is initial cost. In a purely electric car, the battery is the most expensive single component (unless Firefly carbon foam batteries come about, but they aren’t as energy dense as modern lithium batteries so they take up more room). As you saw from the response to my earlier post, the Phoenix from Altairnano will clock in at $70K, while the Telsa Roadster is now up to $98K. To increase vehicle range you have to add battery capacity, which raises cost - there will be no cost effective way, in the short term, to market an electric vehicle with a 300 mile range. And the only way to take advantage of that range would be to exploit the fast-recharge capabilities of the newer batteries - bringing us to the next challenge…
The issue with fast-recharge batteries is finding a means to exploit their capabilities in a practical manner. To recharge a 25 kWh battery in 10 minutes requires a 150 kW power source. This means your local gas station will have to invest in recharge stations. While you’re waiting on them, you’ll have to settle for a much slower home-based recharge at 240 volts - a 30 amp circuit will recharge a 25 kWh battery in about 3.5 hours. That means effective range will be limited to daily commuting - a need met with a mere 40-50 mile electric range, or about 12 kWh. For longer trips you’ll need to keep that gas minivan.
This means the easier path for early widespread adoption of electric vehicles is via plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). The current series hybrid power plants being designed for the VentureOne and the Chevy Volt use a battery for daily use and a diesel generator for longer trips. The series PHEV satisfies all driving needs, and costs less due to the smaller battery requirement.
Since a whopping 75% of all driving is ‘local’ in nature (work, shopping, school, etc), the impact of shifting that mileage from gasoline to the electric grid would be nothing short of staggering. And because most recharging would be done during off-peak overnight hours we don’t have to worry about power company ‘brown outs’ during peak air conditioning season.
Would biofuels like cellulose ethanol have a place in this? Sure - in the short term, if we had a nation of PHEVs dropping the majority of our gasoline needs, the remaining requirement could be met with ethanol and/or biodiesel. And as batteries get less expensive and high-power recharging stations appear, we can move towards all-electric vehicles with bigger batteries. And one day, if hydrogen or other kinds of fuel cells become practical, you can do away with batteries altogether.
But the first step is the PHEV.
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